The lights dim throughout the carefully arranged tables of Hollywood loyalty, and all that is illuminated is the shiny smile of the ginger host, Conan O’Brien. Jokes are cracked at the expense of millionaires. Cameras pan to the reactions of the carefully molded, plastic celebrities. But a heart exists within this facade of fame. Art was made from the long contracts, overbearing producers, and grueling editing stages. On March 15, 2026, it will be time to honor those who are honored daily, this time with golden statuettes dubbed “Oscars.”
2025 stands as one of my favorite years for film, and I think the Academy did a very good job recognizing the best of the year. 19 out of 20 of the acting nominees are deserving of their prizes, save for a subpar performance by Kate Hudson in “Song Sung Blue.” Foreign cinema that has existed for a century is finally on the main stage of American popular culture with the Oscars: two of the ten Best Picture nominees are in a different language, four of the acting nominees are in movies in another language, and three of the directing nominees are foreign. Finally, Hollywood has realized that some of the best movies arise in different countries. However, this is not to say American cinema was bad in 2025. Films like “Sinners,” “One Battle After Another,” and “Marty Supreme,” delivered on all fronts cinematically and became instant classics in my heart.
In a year of a multitude of perfect movies, it’s hard to decide on which ones will take home the big prizes on Oscars day. But with the precursor awards and a little guessing, one can predict who’s going to win on Oscars night.
For Best Supporting Actress there are three main frontrunners: Amy Madigan (“Weapons”), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”), and Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”). After the big Golden Globe win for Taylor, she seems to be the clear lead here. Her movie being so strong and a clear lead for Best Picture helps her odds immensely, plus her performance’s extreme quality. Madigan’s age and her bonkers performance in “Weapons,” a big hit at the box office, helps her odds, but the fact that she is in a horror movie does not help, as the Academy does not usually recognize horror films. Lilleaas remains in the conversation largely because of the strength of her performance and the nine nominations for her film, “Sentimental Value.” The winner will be Teyana Taylor, because of her success at precursor award shows. My favorite performance is Lilleaas.
For Best Supporting Actor there are two frontrunners: Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”) and Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”). Skarsgård delivered a monumental performance in “Sentimental Value,” portraying an aging director who feels the need to connect with his daughters. He gave, by far, my favorite performance of the year. As an actor, Skarsgård has longevity. The reasons for why he will take home the prize on March 15 are clear: he won the Golden Globe and he is old. Elordi, while he won the Critics Choice Award, is too young and was in a horror movie, again something the Academy usually fails to award. The Academy loves giving lifetime awards, and there is a clear opportunity here for Skarsgård.
Best Actress has a clear winner: Jessie Buckley. Buckley, a previously nominated actress, gave a lifetime performance in “Hamnet,” portraying Agnes Shakespeare on the brink of collapse following the death of her son. Buckley is raw and emotional, her performance is the exact one that the Academy is looking for. Due to her success at precursor awards and her likability, Buckley will easily win, and I would choose her as well.
The award for Best Actor is slightly more competitive. While Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) is definitively in the lead, actors Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), cannot be counted out. I’m going to predict Chalamet for the top prize, but it would not be out of the question for Hawke or DiCaprio to snag a win. Personally, Hawke gives one of the greatest performances of all time for me, and he is portraying a real life figure, something the Academy likes to award. I really hope Hawke wins, as Chalamet is pretty obnoxious to me, but Chalamet’s performance is definitely awards worthy, so I cannot be too mad.
The moment Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” was released in late September, the world knew they had just seen something truly special. The Academy knows how special this film is too, giving it 13 total nominations. “One Battle” is going to take home two of the top prizes: Best Director for Paul Thomas Anderson and Best Picture, with little to no competition. While “Sinners” acquired the most nominations in Oscars history, that is mainly because the film is a spectacle that blends genres and contains multiple technical feats. For example, “Sinners” got nominated for Best Original Song, and “One Battle” does not contain an original song. While I think “Sinners” is a truly special film, I think it landed in awards season in an unfair year; “One Battle After Another” is just too strong. While I love “Sentimental Value” with every part of my cinephile existence, “One Battle After Another” is the movie of 2025 and I would give the film all the accolades it deserves.
Overall, while the Oscars are just an excuse to award the most vapid people in the world, they are still really fun, especially for cinephiles and casual movie goers across America. 2025 was truly a great year, and the Academy did a great job with its nominations, so they have little room to do wrong here. In all, I hope they get it right in mid-March, but for now, it’s time to prepare for the great new movies coming out in 2026.
